538

Latest 538 Headlines

3 hours ago

How worried should Democrats be about the polls?

Biden currently trails Trump in national polling and every battleground state.
3 hours ago
Biden currently trails Trump in national polling and every battleground state.
3 hours ago

How worried should Democrats be about the polls? | 538 Politics Podcast

Biden currently trails Trump in national polling and every battleground state.
3 hours ago
Biden currently trails Trump in national polling and every battleground state.
March 18

8 primaries to watch in Ohio, Illinois and California

The GOP primary for Ohio Senate will have big implications for November.
March 18
Bernie Moreno is acknowledged at a rally with former President Donald Trump in Delaware, OH, Apr. 23, 2022.
March 18

Have your student loans been forgiven? We want to hear from you.

We're interviewing people impacted by Biden's student loan forgiveness programs.
March 18
People putting money into a graduation cap in this illustration.
March 15

No one is coming to save us from a 2020 rematch

Third-party candidates are often overrated at this point in the election cycle.
March 15
Plenty of people are dissatisfied with both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but a third-party candidate probably isn't coming to the rescue.
March 14

Do campaign stops actually matter?

Politicians rarely boost turnout in the places where they choose to campaign.
March 14
Politicians rarely boost turnout in the places where they choose to campaign.
March 14

Do campaign stops actually matter? | 538 Politics Podcast

Politicians rarely boost turnout in the places where they choose to campaign.
March 14
Politicians rarely boost turnout in the places where they choose to campaign.
March 14

Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.

But most Republicans and GOP leaners will stick with the party.
March 14
Will Nikki Haley's supporters back Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the 2024 general election?
March 13

Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up

Early polls are weak predictors, and they're especially noisy this year.
March 13
There is still time for President Joe Biden to improve in the polls.
March 11

Does Gen Z really care more about that viral TikTok than politics?

What is (and isn't) motivating young voters today.
March 11
What is (and isn't) motivating young voters today.
March 11

Does Gen Z really care more about that viral TikTok than politics?

What is (and isn't) motivating young voters today.
March 11
What is (and isn't) motivating young voters today.
March 11

How Sinema's retirement changes the Arizona Senate race

Her replacement is unlikely to be a moderate.
March 11
Sen. Mitt Romney talks with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., Aug. 4, 2022.
March 08

LGBTQ+ voters look a lot like swing voters

A new poll reveals how LGTBQ+ Americans are feeling ahead of the election.
March 08
There's a new poll out of LGBTQ+ voters.
March 08

A very political State of the Union

Biden highlighted the top 2024 campaign issues in his address to the nation.
March 08
Biden highlighted the top 2024 campaign issues in his address to the nation.
March 08

A very political State of the Union | 538 Politics Podcast

Biden highlighted the top 2024 campaign issues in his address to the nation.
March 08
Biden highlighted the top 2024 campaign issues in his address to the nation.
March 07

Haley's campaign exposed cracks in Trump's GOP

Her run also underscored a narrow path for women in the Republican Party.
March 07
Republican presidential candidate and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley walks off stage after announcing the suspension of her presidential campaign at her campaign headquarters on March 6, 2024 in Daniel Island, South Carolina.
March 06

Biden’s State of the Union address won’t make or break his campaign

Historically, the speech hasn't advanced the president's popularity or agenda.
March 06
President Joe Biden will give his third State of the Union address on Thursday night
March 06

Super Tuesday brings a couple surprises

Trump dominates but Haley pulls off win in Vermont.
March 06
Trump dominates but Haley pulls off win in Vermont.
March 06

Super Tuesday brings a couple surprises | 538 Politics Podcast

Trump dominates but Haley pulls off win in Vermont.
March 06
Trump dominates but Haley pulls off win in Vermont.
March 04

What to watch for on Super Tuesday

Plus, how Trump is tightening his grip on the GOP.
March 04
Plus, how Trump is tightening his grip on the GOP.
March 04

What to watch for on Super Tuesday | 538 Politics Podcast

Plus, how Trump is tightening his grip on the GOP.
March 04
Plus, how Trump is tightening his grip on the GOP.
March 04

Can Haley stop a Trump sweep on Super Tuesday?

She'll have to overcome his polling lead in virtually every state.
March 04
15 states will hold Republican primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, March 15
March 01

12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in California and Alabama

The most intriguing races are for House and Senate.
March 01
Rep. Adam Schiff speaks to supporters outside the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE) Union Hall, at the kickoff rally for his two week "California for All Tour," Feb. 11, 2023 in Burbank, Calif.
February 29

12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in Texas and North Carolina

Get caught up on the most competitive Senate, House and governor races.
February 29
A woman arrives at an early voting polling site, Feb. 20, 2024, in San Antonio, Texas.
February 28

What to make of the protest votes in Michigan

Biden and Trump's easy victories masked discontent in both parties.
February 28
Biden and Trump's easy victories masked discontent in both parties.
February 28

What to make of the protest votes in Michigan | 538 Politics Podcast

Biden and Trump's easy victories masked discontent in both parties.
February 28
Biden and Trump's easy victories masked discontent in both parties.
February 28

Could Arab American and Muslim voters cost Biden the 2024 election?

They're a small voting bloc but could make the difference in Michigan.
February 28
Abbas Alawieh, spokesperson for Listen to Michigan, Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud and Layla Elabed, campaign manager for Listen to Michigan, speak to the press one day after the Michigan presidential primary, at Haraz Coffee House in Dearborn, Michigan, on February 28, 2024.
February 27

What 538's new primary polling averages say about 3 key Senate races

We're now aggregating polls of Senate, House and governor primaries.
February 27
538 has new primary polling averages for Senate races in California, Ohio, and West Virginia.
February 25

After South Carolina loss, what is Nikki Haley's plan? | 538 Politics Podcast

Without a clear path to the nomination, Haley may be hoping to make a point about the future of the GOP.
February 25
Without a clear path to the nomination, Haley may be hoping to make a point about the future of the GOP.
February 22

Overseas conflicts are sparking strife in US party politics | 538 Politics Podcast

How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are causing intraparty conflicts and what it means for the 2024 election.
February 22
How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are causing intraparty conflicts and what it means for the 2024 election.
February 19

What comes next in Trump's trials | 538 Politics Podcast

Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 19
Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 14

Democrats notch a win in the battle for the suburbs | 538 Politics Podcast

Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 14
Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 12

Who will replace George Santos?

Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Pilip in polls.
February 12
Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Pilip in polls.
February 12

The political conversation about Biden's Age | 538 Politics Podcast

And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 12
And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 08

The data points that will explain the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast

We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.
February 08
We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.

Suggested Interests