Mar 18
Joe Maiorana/AP/FILE
No one is coming to save us from a 2020 rematch
Third-party candidates are often overrated at this point in the election cycle.
March 15, 2024Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.
But most Republicans and GOP leaners will stick with the party.
March 14, 2024Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up
Early polls are weak predictors, and they're especially noisy this year.
March 13, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
3 hours ago
How worried should Democrats be about the polls?
Biden currently trails Trump in national polling and every battleground state.
3 hours ago
3 hours ago
How worried should Democrats be about the polls? | 538 Politics Podcast
Biden currently trails Trump in national polling and every battleground state.
3 hours ago
March 18
8 primaries to watch in Ohio, Illinois and California
The GOP primary for Ohio Senate will have big implications for November.
March 18
March 18
Have your student loans been forgiven? We want to hear from you.
We're interviewing people impacted by Biden's student loan forgiveness programs.
March 18
March 15
No one is coming to save us from a 2020 rematch
Third-party candidates are often overrated at this point in the election cycle.
March 15
March 14
Do campaign stops actually matter?
Politicians rarely boost turnout in the places where they choose to campaign.
March 14
March 14
Do campaign stops actually matter? | 538 Politics Podcast
Politicians rarely boost turnout in the places where they choose to campaign.
March 14
March 14
Many Haley voters won't back Trump. They weren't going to anyway.
But most Republicans and GOP leaners will stick with the party.
March 14
March 13
Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up
Early polls are weak predictors, and they're especially noisy this year.
March 13
March 11
Does Gen Z really care more about that viral TikTok than politics?
What is (and isn't) motivating young voters today.
March 11
March 11
Does Gen Z really care more about that viral TikTok than politics?
What is (and isn't) motivating young voters today.
March 11
March 11
How Sinema's retirement changes the Arizona Senate race
Her replacement is unlikely to be a moderate.
March 11
March 08
LGBTQ+ voters look a lot like swing voters
A new poll reveals how LGTBQ+ Americans are feeling ahead of the election.
March 08
March 08
A very political State of the Union
Biden highlighted the top 2024 campaign issues in his address to the nation.
March 08
March 08
A very political State of the Union | 538 Politics Podcast
Biden highlighted the top 2024 campaign issues in his address to the nation.
March 08
March 07
Haley's campaign exposed cracks in Trump's GOP
Her run also underscored a narrow path for women in the Republican Party.
March 07
March 06
Biden’s State of the Union address won’t make or break his campaign
Historically, the speech hasn't advanced the president's popularity or agenda.
March 06
March 06
Super Tuesday brings a couple surprises
Trump dominates but Haley pulls off win in Vermont.
March 06
March 06
Super Tuesday brings a couple surprises | 538 Politics Podcast
Trump dominates but Haley pulls off win in Vermont.
March 06
March 04
What to watch for on Super Tuesday
Plus, how Trump is tightening his grip on the GOP.
March 04
March 04
What to watch for on Super Tuesday | 538 Politics Podcast
Plus, how Trump is tightening his grip on the GOP.
March 04
March 04
Can Haley stop a Trump sweep on Super Tuesday?
She'll have to overcome his polling lead in virtually every state.
March 04
March 01
12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in California and Alabama
The most intriguing races are for House and Senate.
March 01
February 29
12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in Texas and North Carolina
Get caught up on the most competitive Senate, House and governor races.
February 29
February 28
What to make of the protest votes in Michigan
Biden and Trump's easy victories masked discontent in both parties.
February 28
February 28
What to make of the protest votes in Michigan | 538 Politics Podcast
Biden and Trump's easy victories masked discontent in both parties.
February 28
February 28
Could Arab American and Muslim voters cost Biden the 2024 election?
They're a small voting bloc but could make the difference in Michigan.
February 28
February 27
What 538's new primary polling averages say about 3 key Senate races
We're now aggregating polls of Senate, House and governor primaries.
February 27
February 25
After South Carolina loss, what is Nikki Haley's plan? | 538 Politics Podcast
Without a clear path to the nomination, Haley may be hoping to make a point about the future of the GOP.
February 25
February 22
Overseas conflicts are sparking strife in US party politics | 538 Politics Podcast
How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are causing intraparty conflicts and what it means for the 2024 election.
February 22
February 19
What comes next in Trump's trials | 538 Politics Podcast
Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 19
February 14
Democrats notch a win in the battle for the suburbs | 538 Politics Podcast
Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 14
February 12
Who will replace George Santos?
Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Pilip in polls.
February 12
February 12
The political conversation about Biden's Age | 538 Politics Podcast
And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 12
February 08
The data points that will explain the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.
February 08
Suggested Interests
