12 Super Tuesday primaries to watch in California and Alabama

While the presidential nomination race may be winding down, downballot primary season is officially kicking off on Super Tuesday, the busiest day of the primary calendar in presidential election years. Not only will more than a dozen states hold presidential primaries on March 5, but five of those states will also hold primaries for downballot races, including congressional and gubernatorial contests across the country. The outcomes of many of these races will determine which candidates are on the ballot in November.

My colleague Kaleigh Rogers previewed downballot primaries of interest in North Carolina and Texas yesterday, so today we turn to contests in Alabama and California (Arkansas doesn't have that much going on). We'll cover the presidential primary situation early next week. Here then is a look at 12 U.S. Senate and House races in Alabama and California that we'll be keeping an eye on as returns come in.

Alabama

Races to watch: 1st and 2nd congressional districts
Polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

Redistricting seismically impacted two congressional districts in Alabama, precipitating high-stakes primaries in each. Under the new lines, the 2nd District runs from Mobile in the state's southwest corner to the east across much of Alabama's Black Belt, including Montgomery. The seat has a voting-age population that's almost 50 percent Black, and President Joe Biden would've carried it by 12 percentage points in 2020. The Democratic race has 11 candidates on the ballot looking to capitalize on such favorable turf. But that has made it unlikely that one Democrat will clinch the nomination with a majority of the primary vote, making an April 16 runoff almost a foregone conclusion.

In all, six Democratic contenders merit mention, including five members of the state legislature. Only two actually represent turf inside the new 2nd District, though federal representatives do not need to live in the district they represent. State Rep. Napoleon Bracy hails from the Mobile area — although his home sits just outside the district — while state Rep. Jeremy Gray represents the district's eastern edge. Meanwhile, state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels lives in Huntsville in north Alabama, while state Sen. Merika Coleman and state Rep. Juandalynn "Le Le" Givan represent areas around Birmingham in the center of the state. Former Justice Department official Shomari Figures is the only notable candidate not in the legislature, but he's the son of longtime state Sen. Vivian Figures of Mobile and the late state Sen. Michael Figures, who represented that same seat until his passing in 1996.

Bracy, Figures and Daniels may be best-positioned to fight for the top two spots and advance to the likely April runoff. A December survey conducted by Impact Research for the Southern Poverty Law Center found Bracy leading with 15 percent, while Figures and Daniels fell just shy of 10 percent. A late January internal poll for Figures's campaign from Lester & Associates also found Bracy ahead with 16 percent, followed by Figures at 13 percent and Daniels at 8 percent.

Of these three, Figures has the most financial support backing his candidacy. Through mid-February, he'd raised about $299,000, the second-most behind Daniels, who had raised about $323,000. But Protect Progress, a pro-cryptocurrency super PAC backing Figures, has shelled out $1.7 million to support him, according to data from OpenSecrets. By comparison, Bracy had only raised around $106,000. Still, Bracy may have geography working on his behalf: His home base of Mobile County constitutes 36 percent of the district's population, based on calculations from Daily Kos Elections, something that could also help Figures given his connection to the region. The district's other major metropolitan area, Montgomery County, makes up 32 percent, but none of the leading contenders hails from there.

Although the 2nd District will likely favor Democrats, eight contenders are seeking the GOP nomination. Three stand out: former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker, real estate attorney Caroleene Dobson and state Sen. Greg Albritton. A December poll from McLaughlin & Associates for the Alabama Forestry Association found Brewbaker leading with 24 percent, followed by Albritton (12 percent) and Dobson (5 percent). Brewbaker and Dobson both hail from the Montgomery area and largely self-funded their campaigns ($750,000 of $815,000 raised for Brewbaker and $410,000 of $540,000 for Dobson). Albritton, who represents areas in the southwest part of the new district, has raised only $168,000.

Next door, the 1st District became one of the reddest districts in the country under the new lines — former President Donald Trump would have carried it by 50 points in 2020. And the new map placed two second-term GOP incumbents into a head-to-head primary for the same seat: Rep. Jerry Carl, whose Mobile-based district includes about 59 percent of the new 1st District's population, according to Daily Kos Election, and Rep. Barry Moore, who represents the other 41 percent in the southeastern part of the state.

In such a deeply Republican seat, both contenders have tried to position themselves as the truest pro-Trump conservative. Carl has highlighted his support for "Trump's border wall" and his opposition to Biden, while arguing that Moore opposed legislation that would have completed the border wall. Moore has hit back, arguing that he has supported tough border security legislation and was among the first to back Trump's first presidential bid back in 2015. As evidence of his conservative bona fides, Moore has also touted his membership in the far-right House Freedom Caucus and argued that he can "take out the garbage" in the nation's capital. Moore even announced last November that he wouldn't accept the conservative Club for Growth's endorsement, likely because Trump and the Club had been at odds with each other (though tempers have cooled since then).

On the money front, Carl has had the upper hand. Across his campaign and victory committees, Carl has brought in more than $2 million, compared with Moore's $688,000 — no doubt a big advantage when it comes to ad spending. And Carl is also getting somewhat more outside support: Groups have forked out $1.5 million to oppose Moore, while other outfits have spent about $977,000 either opposing Carl or supporting Moore (including $665,000 from the Club for Growth-affiliated School Freedom Fund, despite Moore refusing the Club's endorsement). With no public polling, this race's outcome is fairly uncertain, although Carl does seem to have slight geographic and monetary advantages.

California

Races to watch: U.S. Senate, 16th, 20th, 22nd, 30th, 31st, 40th, 45th, 47th and 49th congressional districts
Polls close: 11 p.m. Eastern

California has a slew of noteworthy primaries, making it Super Tuesday's Big Kahuna. Many races also have a unique dynamic because, unlike most states, California doesn't use party primaries to decide who makes it to the general election. Instead, it uses a top-two primary in which all candidates run together on the same ballot regardless of party, and the leading two vote-getters advance to the November election. That means two candidates from the same party could move on to the general election, especially in districts that heavily align with that party.

The main event in California is undoubtedly the U.S. Senate race, where the million-dollar question — really many millions of dollars — is whether one Democrat and one Republican will advance, or two Democrats. In deep-blue California, the former would be a snoozefest, while the latter could necessitate expensive campaigning all the way until November. Although 27 candidates filed for the contest to fill the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein — who died last fall — the four leading contenders are Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, plus Republican Steve Garvey, a former Major League Baseball player. The front-runner appears to be Schiff, who is polling at around 25 percent in 538's California primary polling average. This puts him just a bit ahead of Garvey and Porter, who are right around 20 percent for the coveted second spot. Behind them is Lee, who is polling just under 10 percent.

The three Democrats all entered the race with reasons to hope they could capture California's left-leaning electorate. Schiff raised his profile with his lead role in Trump's first impeachment trial in 2020 and as chair of the House Intelligence Committee before the GOP retook the majority in 2022. This has enabled him to raise $29.8 million in net contributions as of mid-February, plus the $21 million he had left in his House account. For her part, Porter has attracted many eyeballs with her withering questioning of corporate leaders in congressional hearings since first winning her seat in 2018. A fundraising powerhouse herself, Porter has collected $16.7 million, combining that with $7.4 million she had left over after 2022. And Lee is the leading candidate of color in the contest, with one of the most progressive voting records in the House. However, she has struggled to keep up in the money race, raising only $4.8 million in net contributions.

In the final weeks, the race has largely come down to whether Schiff can use his massive campaign war chest to push Garvey into second place. Schiff has run ads that attack Garvey for his conservative views and past support for Trump, but the spots intend to raise Garvey's profile among Republican voters. By doing that, Schiff could help Garvey consolidate the GOP vote and finish ahead of Porter, relieving Schiff of a demanding general election campaign against the fellow Democrat. Garvey has only raised $2.1 million, so Schiff's attack ad spending could be pivotal in expanding Garvey's reach among GOP voters. At the same time, a pro-cryptocurrency super PAC has swooped in with $10 million in outside spending seeking to derail Porter.

An additional point of intrigue with Tuesday's election is that there are actually two Senate primaries on the California ballot — the second is a concurrent special election to complete Feinstein's term in the final weeks of 2024, until the winner of the regular election takes office on Jan. 3, 2025. Only seven candidates filed for the special, but that includes all four of the leading contenders. With differing candidate fields and a very close race for second between Garvey and Porter in both contests, it's possible that the two candidates who advance from each primary will differ.

Nine House races are also on our watch list, five in seats that are broadly viewed as potentially competitive in November. Four of those competitive seats take in parts of or sit entirely in Orange County, which has become the most competitive turf in the state.

Before we touch on Orange County, we'll start with the 22nd District in the Central Valley, where Republican Rep. David Valadao is defending one of the bluest seats held by any Republican in the country based on the 2020 presidential vote. Back in 2022, Valadao faced two of his 2024 opponents, former state Assemblymember Rudy Salas (a Democrat) and businessman Chris Mathys (a Republican), in a closely fought primary. Mathys's criticisms of Valadao, who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6, nearly allowed him to edge out Valadao for the second spot in the general election before Valadao narrowly defeated Salas in November. Joining this trio is Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado. By splitting the Democratic vote, Hurtado's candidacy could give Democrats more reason to worry about being "locked out" of an otherwise winnable general in November, especially because the still-technically competitive GOP presidential primary could draw more Republican voters.

Democrats have put their weight behind Salas to try to flip this key seat. House Majority PAC, the leading outside group supporting House Democrats, has spent $844,000 supporting Salas (and $527,000 attacking Valadao), while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (the party's official House arm) has coordinated ad buys with Salas's campaign. For his part, Salas has raised $747,000, far more than Hurtado's $77,000. On the GOP side, Mathys once again self-funded much of his campaign (nearly all of the $335,000 he's raised), but all of this pales compared to Valadao's haul of $2.3 million. But GOP concerns about Valadao remain, which helps explain why the Congressional Leadership Fund, the main outside group that backs House Republicans, has spent close to $1 million attacking Mathys and supporting Valadao.

Turning to the Orange County-based seats, Porter's Senate bid opened up the 47th District, making it a top GOP target despite its slight Democratic lean at the presidential level. Republicans have mostly rallied behind Scott Baugh, a former minority leader in the state Assembly who lost to Porter by only 3 points in 2022. Baugh looks likely to face one of two Democrats, state Sen. Dave Min or attorney Joanna Weiss, who have found themselves in an increasingly ugly fight for second place. A mid-February internal poll for Baugh's campaign found Baugh leading with 27 percent, with Min in second with 22 percent and Weiss in third with 16 percent.

Min entered the race with much fanfare as a Korean American state legislator running in a district whose population is nearly one-fourth Asian. He quickly earned Porter's endorsement and officially garnered the state party's endorsement in November. But last May, Min was cited for driving under the influence, which Weiss has pushed as evidence that he would be a risky choice for Democrats. The two candidates have exchanged barbed attack ads, with Weiss hitting Min for drunk driving and Min accusing Weiss and her husband of making money by defending Catholic priests accused of child molestation.

Weiss has a slight fundraising edge, having brought in nearly $2.2 million ($225,000 self-funded) to Min's $1.7 million. And Weiss has also received far more outside support. Emily's List, which supports Democratic women candidates who back abortion rights, endorsed Weiss, and its campaign arm has spent $814,000 boosting her. The race has also become entangled in the larger intraparty fight over the conflict in Gaza: United Democracy Project, a super PAC funded by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, has spent $4.6 million on the race to back Weiss, mostly by attacking Min. This move raised eyebrows, as Min and Weiss have not expressed notably different views on U.S.-Israel policy.

Next door in the 45th District, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel faces a quartet of Democratic contenders. Army veteran and attorney Derek Tran has led the way in fundraising with $647,000, followed by TikTok influencer Cheyenne Hunt's $390,000 ($107,000 in self-funding), Garden Grove City Councilmember Kim Nguyen-Penaloza's $315,000 and attorney Aditya Pai's $302,000 ($34,000 self-funded). But all of these figures pale in comparison to the incumbent's $4.5 million raised (including $710,000 self-funded).

Nguyen-Penaloza attracted early attention as a leading candidate, but she underwhelmed in fundraising, opening the door for Tran, who jumped into the race in October. Those two contenders have the most institutional backing, as Tran earned endorsements from VoteVets and AAPI Victory Fund, while Nguyen-Penaloza has the backing of the state party, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus's BOLD PAC and labor groups. A plurality of the district's population (39 percent) identifies as Asian, which is reflected in the candidates: Steel is Korean, Tran is the son of Vietnamese refugees, Nguyen-Penaloza is of Vietnamese and Mexican descent, and Pai originally hails from India.

To the north and east sits the 40th District, where Republican Rep. Young Kim is contending with two Democratic opponents: retired Orange County Fire Capt. Joe Kerr and Tustin school board member Allyson Muñiz Damikolas. Kerr has led in the money race with $1.1 million raised, but $869,000 came from his own pocket, whereas Damikolas has raised $550,000 ($65,000 self-funded). With little outside spending, endorsements could weigh heavily here. Kerr has support from Gov. Gavin Newsom as well as backing from various labor groups. But Damikolas has endorsements from Emily's List, BOLD PAC and 314 Action, which aims to elect more scientists (Damikolas is an engineer by trade). The 40th District is the least endangered competitive seat in GOP hands, but Kim's $4.1 million fundraising haul this cycle speaks to its potential as a close race.

Last among the seats that could be competitive this fall, the 49th District straddles the Orange and San Diego county line. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Mike Levin faces a quartet of Republicans angling to take him on in the general election. On the fundraising front, it's mostly been about self-funding. Advertising executive Margarita Wilkinson has loaned her campaign $1.5 million of the $1.8 million she's raised, while car dealership owner Matt Gunderson has self-funded $700,000 of his $1.2 million total. The same is true of the other two candidates, Marine veteran Kate Monroe and auto-industry executive Sheryl Adams, who've raised less than $400,000 each. Just who has the upper hand isn't clear, although a January poll from SurveyUSA/KGTV/San Diego Union-Tribune found Levin leading with 43 percent, followed by Gunderson at 12 percent, Monroe and Wilkinson both at 7 percent and Adams at 3 percent.

The other four seats on our list are considered safe for either party, but have highly contested fights to advance to the general election. In the solidly Republican 20th District in the Central Valley, the race is on to succeed former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned on Dec. 31, 2023. On paper, Republican state Assemblymember Vince Fong should be favored to advance. Fong has raised $768,000 and has endorsements from both Trump and McCarthy, as well as $644,000 in outside spending support from a super PAC backing his candidacy.

But Fong has come under fire from some conservatives for effectively being McCarthy's hand-picked successor, potentially running afoul of the party's anti-establishment turn in recent times. Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux ($281,000 raised) and businessman Kyle Kirkland ($290,000 raised, $135,000 of that self-funded) hope to capitalize on that dissatisfaction. However, Democrat Marisa Wood may have enough leftover name recognition from the 2022 campaign to advance with one Republican. Two years ago, she lost to McCarthy in November by a two-to-one margin. (On March 19, California will hold a special election primary to see out McCarthy's unexpired term. All of the leading candidates are also running in that contest.)

The remaining three safe seats will elect Democrats in November. In the Bay Area 16th District, Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo is retiring, and five Democratic contenders are in play to claim general election places in this deep-blue seat. Four are current or former elected officials: former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, state Assemblymember Evan Low, Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian and Palo Alto City Councilmember Julie Lythcott-Haims. But the fundraising leader is cybersecurity executive and Marine veteran Peter Dixon, who's raised $2.8 million, half from his own pocket. Liccardo has brought in the most without self-funding ($2.2 million), while Low has raised $1.4 million, Simitian $951,000 and Lythcott-Haims $596,000.

Dixon has benefited from the most outside spending, too, as a super PAC backing him has spent $1.3 million, while similar single-candidate super PACs have splashed between $240,000 and $410,000 on behalf of Liccardo, Low and Simitian. High-profile groups or individuals have endorsed each of these candidates: VoteVets backs Dixon, BOLD PAC and Everytown for Gun Safety support Liccardo, the Congressional Progressive Caucus and AAPI Victory Fund back Low, Eshoo endorsed Simitian to succeed her and Emily's List backs Lythcott-Haims.

Schiff's Senate campaign left open his North Los Angeles-based 30th District, and four Democrats look to have a shot at advancing to the general election. State Sen. Anthony Portantino leads the fundraising race with $1.6 million, while Los Angeles school board member Nick Melvoin, former Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer and state Assemblymember Laura Friedman have each raised between $1.1 and $1.5 million.

Much like in the 16th District, many of these contenders have pulled in an array of endorsements. Friedman, the sole woman in contention, has notable backing from national progressive, abortion rights and environmental groups, like the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Emily's List and the League of Conservation Voters. Portantino has support from a host of labor organizations, including the California chapters of AFSCME and SEIU. Feuer has support from Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and Giffords, the pro-gun safety group founded by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona. Also in this race is actor Ben Savage, famous for his role on the television show "Boy Meets World," who's collected $1.4 million, mostly from his own pocket. But he's unlikely to do all that well, having finished seventh in a 2022 city council race in West Hollywood.

Lastly, the eastern Los Angeles-based 31st District has five leading Democrats fighting to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Grace Napolitano in a seat that is about 63 percent Latino. The broad contours of the race involve a wealthy outsider, former Rep. Gil Cisneros, facing off against four contenders from the area. In 2010, Cisneros won the Mega Millions lottery, which financed his successful 2018 campaign for the old 39th District, before losing reelection in 2020. But that turf lay to the south of the district he's running in now, so he's tried to overawe the field by amply self-funding almost all of the $4.6 million that he's raised.

Two state senators, Bob Archuleta and Susan Rubio, serve as Cisneros's main rivals. Archuleta has self-funded nearly half of his campaign ($514,000 total raised), while Rubio has brought in $555,000. Two other mostly self-funding candidates — attorney Greg Hafif ($826,000 raised) and Citrus Community College board of trustees member Mary Ann Lutz ($625,000) — are also in the mix. Rubio has attacked Cisneros for carpetbagging to this seat, while Cisneros has played up his progressive bona fides and portrayed Rubio as beholden to corporate interests. Archuleta, who has Napolitano's endorsement, could benefit from the Rubio-Cisneros back-and-forth.

***

538 will be live-blogging the presidential and downballot primary results on the evening of March 5, so please make sure to join us as we follow all the ins and outs of these contests!

UPDATE (March 4, 2024, 4:16 p.m.): This story has been updated to include endorsements for Evan Low in a list of notable endorsements in California's 16th District House race.