538's preview of the Ohio, Illinois and California primaries on March 19, 2024.

No, Nikki Haley is not going to run as a third-party candidate against Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Early polls show President Joe Biden losing to former President Donald Trump. Does that matter?

An exclusive new poll of LGBTQ+ voters finds wide support for Joe Biden, but more moderate political views.

Why Joe Biden's State of the Union address might not matter.

Nikki Haley's presidential campaign revealed divisions in the Republican Party.

Donald Trump has a strong polling lead on Super Tuesday, but Nikki Haley might have a shot in a few states.

538's preview of the Senate and House primaries in California and Alabama on March 5.

538's preview of the Senate, House and gubernatorial primaries in North Carolina and Texas on March 5.

They're a small voting bloc, but Democrats can't take their support for granted. Plus, takeaways from the uncommitted campaign in Michigan.

538 has new primary polling averages for Senate races in California, Ohio and West Virginia.

New polls on Ukraine, Black History Month, the Supreme Court, political philosophy and TikTok.

Republican Party rifts in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan could have an impact on the 2024 election.

Democrats overperforming in special contests doesn't say much about the general election. Plus, why it's not a big deal that the polls were slightly off.

Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Pilip in polls.

538 rounds up recent polling on extreme weather, U.S. involvement in the Israel-Hamas war, the bipartisan border deal, the Super Bowl and Valentine’s Day.

What are internal polls, and can we trust them?

Donald Trump and Nikki Haley won't square off in Nevada's primary or caucuses.

Biden is looking to boost his dismal approval ratings on immigration.

The 538 crew breaks down the latest congressional and presidential fundraising numbers from the last quarter of 2023.

Democrats and Republicans fear very different threats to democracy.

Trump may wrap up the Republican nomination after only a few states have voted.

How often did Senate and House Democrats and Republicans vote with President Joe Biden in 2023?

538's Elliot Morris discuss how to rate the "pollsters" in America using their "historical track record and methodological transparency of each polling firm’s polls".

Donald Trump's hold on the GOP looms over Ron DeSantis's failed presidential campaign.

Republicans in the Granite State are generally more moderate than those in Iowa, but their top issues are largely aligned with those of the national party.

How Republican voters feel about the presidential candidates before the New Hampshire primary.

How much of a polling bump will Donald Trump, Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis get out of Iowa?

Galen Druke speaks to ABC News campaign reporters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

538 tracked which GOP primary candidates are holding the most campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire.

An explanation of 538's new Republican primary delegate benchmarks.

Who are the voters driving Nikki Haley's rise in the polls?

Chris Christie's withdrawal from the GOP primary came at just the right time for Nikki Haley.

Three January debates offer former President Donald Trump’s primary opponents a last chance to make their case.

Former President Donald Trump faces attempts to disqualify him from the ballot based on the Jan. 6 insurrection.

538 looks at Republican voters' second choices in the primary and who could gain or lose support if a major candidate drops out.

Donald Trump's chances to win the Republican primary are very high.

Checking in on the state of the Republican presidential primary race in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The under-the-radar elections to watch in 2024.

Senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich looks back at his 2023 predictions.

A roundup of the most important things that happened this past year.

The crew reacts to the Colorado State Supreme Court’s ruling to remove Trump from the presidential primary ballot.

Will Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis benefit from the endorsements of Iowa's and New Hampshire's governors?

The crew take a look at the polls heading into the Iowa caucuses.

FiveThirtyEight’s Galen Druke talks about what the 2024 presidential field looks like with just one month left until the Iowa caucuses.

Unless Trump drops out, the GOP presidential primary could be over in a month.

Americans narrowly support the House opening an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, but oppose actual impeachment.

In this week's 538 politics chat, we discuss what a second (or third...) Trump term might look like. Are critics’ fears of an authoritarian Trump presidency justified?

The 2024 GOP primary calendar will have a historically long and drawn-out start. That could cause chaos right before the biggest day of the primary.

Republican and independent voters may be key in a race between two Democrats.